Owen Jones: The left have been proved correct about Keir Starmer

At the beginning of this year, when contemplating the likely mood of Labour’s annual gathering in the autumn after an election, my mind’s eye settled on an obvious prediction.

Keir Starmer’s allies would be dripping with triumphalism, from the dour middle managers masquerading as Cabinet ministers, to the young suited hacks seemingly possessed by the spirits of crudely ambitious middle-aged men, all would be riotously dancing on the political graves not just of shattered Toryism but of the hated left who had dared to doubt them.

But this felt more like a burst balloon than a victory party. Having expected to win something more like 45% of the vote, getting just 33.7% – and fewer votes than 2019 – on the worst turnout in British democratic history was the first puncture.

With the left expected to be looking for a nearby ditch to die in, the victory of Greens and independents – not least the despised Jeremy Corbyn – led to further deflation.

READ MORE: Humza Yousaf issues clarification on fake 'Zionist' tweet

But this was still a landslide victory, even if it was gifted by an increasingly anachronistic electoral system – and the Starmerites could simply pretend a tidal wave of enthusiasm had elevated them to high office. Since then, reality has robbed them of the triumphalism they believed they richly deserved.

The argument long made by the left is very simple to understand. Starmer’s Labour had been gifted an astronomical polling lead almost exclusively because of Tory self-destruction. He had secured the leadership through almost unprecedented dishonesty and duplicity and had no coherent vision or answers for an increasingly unfortunately named United Kingdom long defined by crisis.

That argument has now been vindicated, and what’s worse, the Starmerites know it.

Labour’s rulers clearly believed that attacking the Winter Fuel Payment– leaving large numbers of vulnerable pensioners without desperately needed support – would gift them a reputation for being hard-headed and sensible.

Suspending Labour MPs for voting against removing a two-child benefit cap which condemns so many children to poverty and hardship would further gift Starmer the aura of “strong leader”.

Keir Starmer delivers a speech at the Labour Party conference (Image: Peter Byrne) Throw in speeches demanding sacrifice from a public which has endured the longest squeeze in living standards for 200 years, and the electorate would offer gratitude that finally, here was a government prepared to be honest.

It has not panned out like this. To be gentle, were they sniffing glue if they thought otherwise? The British public has had spent years being told that with just a bit more sacrifice, prosperity and stability would finally beckon. It never happened. Public services fell apart, infrastructure crumbled, insecurity grew, turmoil and division increased.

They had ejected the Tories expecting there might be some actual change. Having endured an era of stagnation and decline, and being promised extra helpings, was bad enough. But being told to offer up yet more sacrifice from politicians showering themselves with freebies from rich donors and companies – well, to be blunt, they were pissed off.

Just weeks after securing victory, a Labour prime minister finds himself in the position of defending more than £100,000 of freebies and hospitality – more than every Labour leader put together since 1997 – while being widely regarded as the man condemning struggling 80-year-old to freezing homes and possible death sentences.

READ MORE: SNP call for investigation into Lord Alli's donations to Keir Starmer

According to the latest polling from More In Common, Starmer’s net approval is now -27, a collapse of 38 points in two months, and roughly where Rishi Sunak was when he fatefully called an election in May. You may recall rightly regarding the Tory then prime minister as being catastrophically unpopular at the time.

After a change in governing party, this is unprecedented. It took Margaret Thatcher 18 months to plummet to this level after her 1979 win; Tony Blair 69 months after his 1997 triumph; David Cameron 24 months after his 2010 success. It took Starmer less than three months.

No wonder, then, that so many delegates didn’t want to speak to me, and every minister simply marched off. When Labour was in opposition, that wasn’t so. How peculiar: why so happy to speak to me before a victory, but not in the aftermath?

Those who did speak were either open about their disillusionment – and the Labour conference voted down the winter fuel payment cut, which the leadership will ignore – or tried putting on an optimistic gloss which was betrayed by the worry in their eyes.

Here’s a prediction. The Labour leadership’s unpopularity will only grow, but there will also be some respite. Interest rates are likely to come down, at least somewhat, and the government will be forced to offer something, at least, in the Budget.

But there are two structural problems. The first is our economic model, a remorseless generator of insecurity, which Westminster will leave intact. The second is in the government itself. Labour styled themselves as the “grown-ups back in the room” who, by simply no longer committing to radically redistributing wealth and power, would neutralise press attacks.

It turns out, to be frank, that they are not very good. They lack ideas, they lack charisma, they lack honesty, they lack integrity, they lack empathy, but the one thing they do not lack, frankly, is greed.

Why else refuse to back down on freebies, even when it’s currently clearly damaging them?

Enter Occam’s Razor to offer a straightforward answer – they just like the freebies too much! I’ll be frank, even I didn’t expect this crew to crumble so swiftly.

But this is no time for schadenfreude. Vultures are circling overhead, belonging to the radical right: and unless the left sorts itself out, they will feast merrily on the carcass of this dire administration.