Alyn Smith: Moldova’s narrow Yes victory highlights tensions

What was billed as a feel-good traditional family gathering turned into more of an ambush.

Other countries which may have been colonised by the British but have since reclaimed their sovereignty and independence insisted that there be a proper discussion about reparations for slavery.

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Hard on the heels of the Brits having to hand back the Chagos Islands (leading to the intriguing fact that the sun now does indeed set on the remaining bits of the British Empire), the UK was not in a position to dictate the agenda and floundered terribly in the face of concerted opposition.

In an even for him flat-footed response, the Prime Minister said he only wants to talk about “forward-looking issues” rather than any consideration of reparations.

So not only did we do this to you, we’re not going to talk about it. What a way to make friends and influence people.

But that’s a passing observation of the UK’s diminished place even in the Commonwealth, never mind in the world (and let’s not pretend many Scots were not enthusiastic participants in the worst excesses of empire). Messiness applies to all empires everywhere.

In the Middle East, as the legacy of Ottoman, French and British imperialism continue to benight a bit of the world that should be paradise, or in Eastern Europe, as the legacy of Russian, and Soviet, imperialism still has deep and visible roots.

It was Henry Kissinger who said (and annoyingly, I can’t find the exact quote) that he had never met a Russian official who viewed the collapse of the Soviet Union as anything other than temporary.

The forcible movement of millions of people across Russia and then the Soviet Union has left many of the former Soviet Republics with significant Russian-speaking populations, some of whom have little affinity for the state they are living in.

In, for example, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the benefits of EU membership have to a large extent encouraged folks who might otherwise look to Moscow to look more westwards, but that has not been without lumps and bumps as the new states established themselves.

But it remains a common attitude amongst many Russians – amped up and weaponised by the current dreadful government but genuine nonetheless – that the Russian sphere of influence has been only temporarily rolled back.

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Nato and EU expansion are not seen as benign, they are seen as aggressive intrusions into countries that aren’t really countries at all but should be a grateful part of the multi-ethnic Russian family, client states and provinces of Mother Russia. Putin and his henchmen have tapped into that but it has deep roots in regular society.

Contrast the EU and indeed Nato. Both very different organisations, but both voluntary in their membership. No member state has been forced to join either, and indeed, as Brexit proves, are free to go at any time.

The EU is all about economic prosperity, and the prospect of accession and reality of EU membership has to my mind cemented in central Europe a zone of prosperity, peace and the rule of law.

I’m delighted to see the new Commission put further expansion seriously on the agenda, to the Western Balkans but also to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

But this is not how Moscow sees it and we should not forget that context across the entire region.

So in Moldova last week, we saw a truly historic vote. Moldova has half the population of Scotland, is sandwiched between Ukraine to the east and south and Romania to the west with the partly autonomous and de facto Russian-occupied Transnistria region along the Eastern border.

It has had a complicated history with borders and population moving all over the place.

But last week it decided in a referendum to enshrine EU membership in the constitution, put historic uncertainty behind it and set course for an association where borders count for less and less, Hurrah!

Just. There should not be too much self-congratulation in Brussels or elsewhere, this was a chilly reality check. Of the 1,488,874 votes cast, 749,719 were for “Da” and 7391,55 for “Nu”, with Yes winning by a tiny margin at 50.35%.

A win is a win is a win, but it is safe to say this is and will be a contested one.

Held on the same day was the presidential election where the centre-right incumbent President Maia Sandu won 42% of the vote and former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo 26%.

There will be a run-off election on November 3 between the pro-EU Sandu and pro-Russian Stoianoglo. There have been credible allegations of industrial scale subtle and unsubtle vote rigging, with some of the sums being mentioned in bribes running to billions.

There probably was, and there needs to be an inquiry like never before into the methods used because they’re being used elsewhere.

But we also need to have a think about the other side, we can’t assume that anyone voting No was duped, corrupt or simple. The same mistake was made by some in analysis of the UK’s Brexit vote. The EU’s actions in Ukraine, viewed with rather close attention in Moldova, have not always shown the organisation to be united, focused, or indeed focused on the right things.

Some Moldovans are genuinely sceptical of EU membership and would rather look to Moscow. That is an argument to win and much more emphasis needs to be given to informing folks and winning the argument.

I’ll write more next week on the election yesterday in Georgia but it is safe to say it was a mixed bag and the EU is not seen by all as a white knight. That’s a problem all of us on this continent share.