It’s time to face the unsavoury fact that Netanyahu is 'winning'

The happy day it seems was meant to be November 26, but who can tell the demands that the next round of ethnic cleansing in northern Gaza, or pulverising of Lebanon, will make on the Israeli leader’s time?

Then there’s those pesky Iranians to keep an eye on too, for you never know when they might want to go the next round of tit-for tat-missile salvoes and drone attacks and Netanyahu will be called upon to give Tehran another knuckle rap.

Should young Avner’s wedding go ahead as planned, then it could pose a risk to participants, his dad is said to have told the Israeli state-owned broadcaster Kan.

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What an inconvenience for Netanyahu, the very idea that war should get in the way of such an auspicious occasion and disrupt his family life. But then what Netanyahu wants, Netanyahu invariably gets.

Just take a look at the extent to which he has managed to get his own way so far, for example on the military front, starting with Gaza.

As I write, the current Palestinian death toll stands at more than 43,000. In northern Gaza, the Israeli military continues to bludgeon buildings with airstrikes, countless people are uprooted – again – and aid deliberately prevented from reaching innocent civilians.

In Lebanon it’s a similar story, though here Netanyahu has got the added bonus of destroying Unesco World Heritage sites along with the forced displacement of countless more people. Netanyahu, of course, will argue that Lebanon’s Hezbollah paramilitary group, especially its leadership, along with that of Hamas in Gaza, have been dealt a string of deadly blows, and how could that not be called “winning”?

On the home political front too he can claim a victory, for in the days and weeks following last year’s October 7 attack by Hamas, the consensus home and away was that Netanyahu’s days in power were numbered.

(Image: STEPHANIE KEITH)

It’s not that his approval ratings were good even before then – far from it. His popularity was plummeting, and millions of ordinary Israelis were on the streets demanding an election and his ousting. How times have changed.

Only this week, a poll by Israel’s Channel 14 broadcaster found that if elections were held now, Netanyahu and his cabal of far-right ultranationalists and racists would be back in power.

Other polls show similar findings, confirming that Netanyahu is winning back his grip on power, winning back the belief in the eyes of many Israelis that “Mr Security,” is again in the driving seat, keeping them safe and ridding them once and for all of the threat from Hamas and Hezbollah.

“These are momentous days,” Netanyahu is on the record as saying following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last month, calling it a “turning point” in the war.

“One year later, blow after blow … their hopes have dashed. Israel has momentum; we are winning,” Netanyahu told his fellow Israelis, and if current polls are anything to go by, then many by and large agree with him.

For some Israelis, it doesn’t matter that their prime minister is the target of a potential arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC), or that Israel itself is being investigated on genocide charges at the United Nations’ top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

It doesn’t seem to matter all that much either that tens of thousands of lives have been lost and millions more ripped apart, for all that really concerns those same Israelis right now is that “Bibi” is winning.

Given that the latest polls this week also show that Israelis massively favour Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in next Tuesday’s US presidential elections, and the only conclusion one can draw is that they see a Trump victory as one that aligns with Netanyahu’s “winning” streak and the political-military trajectory of his policies.

The short-sightedness of this is gobsmacking, as is that of Israel’s western allies who, let’s be frank, have been the absolute enablers of Netanyahu’s turnaround.

Weapons supplies, material support and above all the cowed diplomatic acquiescence of the US, UK and other governments have all made sure of this success.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s disgraceful remarks this week that terminology like “genocide” referring to Gaza was “not appropriate” and was “repeated by protesters and law breakers”, is precisely a point in case.

Yes, I get Lammy’s argument that “genocide” is a legal term that must be determined by international courts. The point is, though, that many international legal experts have already said that what Israel is perpetrating is indeed genocide. The West’s response then in turn should be to act on such findings and hold Netanyahu and his messianic cohorts to account, not act as willing enablers to war crimes.

I’m no legal expert but for what it’s worth, I’ve witnessed genocide up close while covering conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and what Gaza is experiencing does in my view more than fit with such a definition.

As the editorial headline in Thursday’s edition of the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz candidly put it: “If It Looks Likes Ethnic Cleansing, It Probably Is.”

What else could repeated calls for “erasing Gaza” and perpetrating a “second Nakba” by some members of Netanyahu’s cabinet be if not war crimes and crimes against humanity, given what is happening on the ground in Gaza?

And there’s another thing too about Netanyahu’s “victory” – it does nothing to solve the long-term problems, and has set peace back perhaps for a generation.

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Whatever “winning” means to Netanyahu, it leaves behind millions of traumatised Arabs, who will be a long time forgiving – if ever. That some of our own western political leaders are complicit in this undermining of any search for peace is in itself a diplomatically myopic defeat of disgraceful proportions.

As David Hearst, a veteran Middle East correspondent and editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye, aptly put it the other day: “Far from facing an arrest warrant, Netanyahu is taking a bow to general applause.”

Yes, it’s time to face up to the unsavoury fact that Netanyahu is “winning” – under his terms, at least. But if he is, then let us equally be in no doubt that it has only been possible with our help.

And by “our” I mean the West’s collusion from the likes of the Biden administration, and the UK Government’s mealy-mouthed enablers like Keir Starmer, David Lammy and many others shamefully like them.