COUNCIL by-elections are notoriously poor indicators of a party's performance in a future national election.

We cannot read too much into yesterday's five council by-elections which saw the Tories win four council seats in the north east and Labour narrowly squeaking a win in Inverclyde. 

Despite not winning the Inverclyde seat, the SNP gave the Labour Party a run for its money. The SNP would probably have won the first preference vote if there had been no Alba candidate, but they would still most likely have lost the seat due to second and third preference votes being swapped between the anti-independence parties. 

Nevertheless, the SNP increased its share of the vote substantially and according to polling blogger James Kelly the result is in line with the SNP having a lead of 11% or more over Labour in a Holyrood election. 

In all the council elections except Inverclyde there was a significant drop in the Labour vote. That does not bode well for the Labour Party at the next Scottish Parliament elections. 

Meanwhile, the results ought to be a warning to the SNP that they cannot rely solely on Labour's increasing unpopularity in order to win the next Holyrood elections. 

More concerning is the rise of Reform UK in the north east, where the Tory vote is traditionally large and there is a high proportion of residents who have come to live in Scotland from elsewhere in the UK, bringing their political preferences with them. 

Reform UK took 25.9% of the first preference votes in the Fraserburgh and District by-election. Reform UK performed well in the other council by elections in the north east. This shows it is highly likely that Scotland will see its first Reform UK MSPs following the next Holyrood election and hard right-wing populist nationalist anti-immigration climate change denying politics will officially have gained its first toehold in Scottish politics. That is a deeply unedifying prospect. 

Reform UK has not yet articulated a clear policy on devolution, their manifesto for this year's Westminster General Election contained no mention of devolution. It mentions England and Northern Ireland three times, Wales twice, and Scotland not at all. 

However, at the Reform UK party conference in September, the party's MP for Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe, called for the abolition of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd, demanding that devolution be reversed and the Act of Union be restored. 

Lowe is a senior and influential figure within the party, his comments together with the absence of a single mention of devolution or Scotland in the manifesto reveal that Reform's leadership has no interest in Scotland and no understanding of the country.

Reform is Nigel Farage's creature, and while his brand of English nationalist pub bore politics might appeal to many in England, like Boris Johnson he fails to resonate in Scotland and indeed actively repels most. 

Aware that abolishing the Scottish Parliament is popular in Scotland only amongst the spittle flecked denizens of the comments sections of the anti-independence press, Reform UK hurriedly denied that the abolition of devolution is party policy. 

However, although the right-wing English nationalist populist party was able to ignore Scotland in its Westminster manifesto this year, it will not be able to repeat the same trick in a Holyrood manifesto and will have to come up with a set of Scottish-specific policies. 

A demand to abolish the Scottish Parliament might appeal to the English nationalists who dominate the party, and might have an appeal to the small minority of uber-Unionists in Scotland but such a call will not resonate with the vast majority of Scottish voters and would merely cement Reform UK's status as a minority party which can easily be ignored. 

They have no chance of winning a constituency seat in Holyrood, their main threat is to the Conservative Party in the list vote. Like Alba before them, Reform UK might well fail to make any electoral impact at all, and Alba had the advantage of a well-known and charismatic leader who actually understood Scottish politics. Reform UK has a man who is deeply unpopular and who has no feeling at all for Scottish sensibilities. 

Trump might forget his train of thought, but he never forgets a grudge

Meanwhile the shock waves of Trump and his MAGA Republicans' resounding win in this week's US election continue to reverberate around the globe. 

First Minister John Swinney has been criticised for congratulating Trump on his victory. Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie has said that Trump does not deserve the First Minister's welcome. 

He says that Trump's toxicity and the danger he poses to women, to LGBT people, minorities, the fight against climate change and to democracy and the rule of law mean that Trump does not deserve what is normal in other circumstances – democratically elected leaders congratulating a politician in another country who has won a democratic election. 

It's worth remembering that all modern authoritarian autocrats begin by winning a free and fair election and then once in power they use the state to attack and persecute their political enemies and cement their rule by suppressing dissent, controlling the media, and weaponising the justice system. 

This is the pattern followed by those Trump admires, above all Putin in Russia, but also Orbán in Hungary and Erdoğan in Turkey. Trump has signalled that he intends to pursue the same dark path. 

In a letter to the president-elect the First Minister wrote: "We greatly appreciate the strong and lasting social, cultural and economic ties we have with the United States and are sure that these will continue to flourish during your Presidency. 

"I wish you every success in your new role." 

Defending the letter, the First Minister said: "Regardless of the presidential choice in the United States, I want to maintain good relationships between Scotland and the United States." 

It is worth noting that the First Minister's letter contained no praise for Trump or his running mate JD Vance personally, and no approval for their stated policies. But many in Scotland will feel deep disquiet that we are all now forced to kneel at the altar of Trump out of fear for what this vengeful and vindictive bully, who is now the most powerful man in the world, will do to those he sees as his enemies. 

Trump often forgets people's names – he called Elon Musk Leon Musk – he frequently forgets words and loses his train of thought, but he never forgets a grudge. 

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is also finding himself under attack for his previous strong criticisms of Trump. Lammy is now trying to backtrack. It's an unedifying sight.