THE Labour UK Government came to office on a set of big promises, and their Budget last week was their first major opportunity to meet them.
Having given in to pressure from the SNP and changed their fiscal rules, the UK Budget undoubtedly was a step in the right direction, but it did not go nearly far enough to reverse the impacts of 14 years of Westminster austerity.
And as always with UK governments, there was a sting in the tail for Scotland – indeed, there were several.
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Despite having billions of pounds of headroom, the Chancellor took absolutely no action on the two-child cap – a policy that is keeping hundreds of thousands of children in poverty.
At the stroke of a pen, Rachel Reeves could have made an unimaginable difference to the opportunities of so many children and made the conscious, political choice not to.
So the Tory two-child cap is now, unequivocally, the Labour two-child cap. And people in Scotland will make their judgement on that.
Similarly, the Chancellor could have abandoned her decision to cut the Winter Fuel Payment – a policy which was a lifeline for so many of our older citizens through the cold, Scottish winter.
Again, she did nothing. The Labour Government saw the furious reaction from people in Scotland, and heard the calls from our older people for a U-turn – then chose to press ahead anyway.
Then there was a tax hike on whisky, using our national drink as a cash cow to fill the Treasury’s coffers. And the further tax grab on the north-east of Scotland, which an energy firm has confirmed is causing them to end their operations in the North Sea.
This was not a Budget in Scotland’s interests – a fact highlighted most clearly of all by the £500 million hit to Scotland’s budget from the Chancellor’s decision to hike employer national insurance contributions.
That means greater costs for the Scottish Government, our local authorities, our NHS and other public sector employers – which would take vital funding away from the frontline where it is needed most.
The Scottish Government has been told that the Treasury will provide mitigation. But we don’t know how much will be covered, or when it will be provided.
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That would be unacceptable at the best of times – but when we are preparing to publish our Budget in just a few weeks’ time, we do not have the time for the Treasury to make vague promises. We need urgent clarity.
But it’s not just the public sector that will suffer – these impacts are going to be felt across a range of important sectors that provide services we all rely on.
GPs, social care providers, colleges and others will be hit. Universities alone estimate their bill from Labour’s tax hike will be £30m.
Even charities are facing a major hit – with the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations estimating costs of around £75m.
These are often frontline organisations providing vital services in our communities – and if Labour hit them with this massive cost, many of them could be facing very difficult decisions in the coming months. That’s why the First Minister has been clear – the UK Budget cannot be balanced on the backs of Scotland’s charities.
The Treasury must meet the costs, in full, and fix the mess they have made. And we need that clarity to be provided now.
It seems clear to me that the Treasury simply did not consider the impact these changes would have on Scotland – the panicked reaction in the aftermath makes that clear.
But that gets to the heart of the problem with leaving these decisions in the hands of Westminster governments. Whether they are Labour or Tory, for the UK Government, Scotland will always be a afterthought.
Before his election, Keir Starmer promised Scotland change. But for the families in poverty suffering from the two-child cap, the pensioners struggling to heat their homes this winter and the charities facing a multi-million-pound tax grab, the Budget will all feel very familiar.
This Budget – and the series of failures from the Labour Government during their chaotic first five months in office – has shown that the type of real, meaningful change that we need will simply never be delivered by a Westminster government.
It will only be delivered by taking decisions in Scotland with independence – and the Labour Government’s failure to deliver on their promises is making that more and more clear.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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