THE US election has had so much coverage and comment that I don’t see the need to add to it in this column which is after all about the EU and Europe. Perhaps I’ll turn to it once we see the reality of what it means, for the US and us and I don’t think that’s clear yet.
But the one thing I will say – because it is the biggest lesson for all of us – is that if parties are perceived as out of touch, they lose. The voters are interested and care about what they’re interested in and care about, and parties need to focus on those issues, not the pet projects of politicians themselves.
We saw this in Germany last week, where the fractious “traffic light coalition” which has been led by Federal Chancellor socialist Olaf Scholz finally fell apart with the sacking of the finance minister and the leader of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), Christian Lindner.
The Red-Yellow-Green coalition has been comprised of Scholz’s socialists, Lindner’s Free Democrats and the Greens and was always a bit shaky but finally fell apart as the parties tried to deal with a sluggish economy and public finances, for Germany, in a tough state.
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Chancellor Scholz has set out his preferred timetable for further negotiations on the budget and an eventual vote of no confidence in the government, in January next year, six months ahead of the scheduled vote to elect the 598 members of the Bundestag.
It seems pretty unlikely this timetable will stand, and collapse followed by a snap election seems imminent.
Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) opposition leader, stands to profit most from the election with a general discontent abroad in politics and politicians.
On Thursday morning, Merz rejected that timetable, saying there was “absolutely no reason to wait to put off the confidence vote to January” adding that Scholz should schedule the confidence vote by next week, triggering an election which would, given the December holiday period, probably be in January so a good few months of uncertainty.
Coalition governments are the norm in German politics of course, but the arithmetic in the next parliament is going to be quite different.
As we’ve seen from state elections I’ve covered before, the extremes on the left and right are making all the noise.
On the right, the Alternative für Deutschland party, is polling at about 17%, more than the SPD, Scholz’s party itself.
At the other end of the spectrum, the new left-wing but also socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance looks set to make significant gains, especially in the former East Germany but they’re still on around 8% Germany-wide.
With the Greens on 11% and the FDP on 4%, it seems unlikely any party on the left will have the numbers to get anywhere near a majority, but with all parties already ruling out a deal with AFD, the numbers to secure a CDU-led government will also be tricky.
The biggest issue in the election will be the economy, but much of the debate will be about Ukraine.
There is already considerable fatigue amongst a lot of voters on the support for Ukraine, and as the likely shift in US policy becomes clearer, it will be a major factor in the results.
Merz for the CDU has been vocal in his support of Ukraine, but with left and right populists pushing for less funding and support, it may be difficult to maintain that position.
But the economic backdrop of the campaign, especially during a dark winter election, will be bleak.
German GDP is set to shrink for the second year in a row, and the totemic German car industry has had a run of bad headlines. Just last week, VW announced the closure of three factories and the loss of tens of thousands of jobs.
Worse news is forecast, with the car industry trade body VDA releasing a report this week that suggests industry changes will lead to 186,000 job losses by 2035 – of which barely a quarter have already occurred – as consumers shift to electric vehicles which the German industry has been slow to adopt.
So a snap election and a fractious time are in prospect at a time when in neighbouring France a snap election resulted in a fractions campaign and an even more fractious parliament.
A similar result in Germany will be significant for economic and Ukraine policy across the entire EU – none of it positive.
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