Trump’s win is a serious wake-up call for Europe’s progressives

This year, as we watched the results trickle in once again, the feeling was different. This time, there was no surprise. Far-right victories aren’t the anomaly they once seemed; they’re familiar, even predictable – and that’s what should worry us most.

Across Europe, we see similar dynamics. France has Marine Le Pen, appealing to disillusioned voters with promises of security and belonging. Italy, Germany, the UK, each has its own version of this trend. The political ground beneath our feet is shifting and for progressives it raises difficult questions:

Why are we losing ground, and where are we missing the mark?

The reality is that far-right populists are connecting with people who feel economically and socially insecure in a way that left-wing progressives are struggling to equate. Whether it’s the high cost of living, precarious jobs or stagnant wages, these leaders address people’s struggles with a message that seems clear and direct: “I see your pain, and I’ll do something about it.”

Trump, Le Pen, and others are hitting on something real, something raw that progressives often overlook.

Instead, they tend to focus on condemning these leaders for their offensive rhetoric and divisive agendas. While these criticisms are justified, they’re not always effective. People aren’t blind to the problems with far-right leaders but are willing to give them a chance to “shake things up.”

When the left’s message is primarily “Vote for us because we’re the good guys, and they’re dangerous,” it gets really old, really quick. Because people are looking for change, not a lecture.

Adding to this challenge is the economic reality hitting ordinary voters. Take inflation, a radioactive issue for any incumbent party. All the positive indicators in the world about “growth” don’t change the basic fact life has become painfully expensive, with wages failing to keep pace.

READ MORE: This is why I’m conflicted over Labour MP’s end of life bill

This squeeze on living standards is direct and relentless, a daily reminder to voters that promises of recovery often don’t trickle down to the shopping cart or electricity bill. And yet, it’s common for leaders to wave around reassuring statistics, insisting the economy is strong, that employment rates are up, that wages are stable.

But this can come off as stunningly condescending – people don’t need to be lectured about magical numbers when they’re struggling to make ends meet. If their incomes can’t stretch to cover rent, groceries, and essentials, no amount of “positive trends” in the macroeconomy is going to feel meaningful.

Many in Europe were hoping a Democrat victory in the US would signal that progressive values were still “winning”. For some, a Kamala Harris win was expected to be a lifeline – a sign that things could return to “normal”.

But when you assume you’re the obvious choice, you rarely question what you’re actually offering people. The truth is, taking values and legacy for granted is a dangerous mistake. Faced with everyday challenges – like housing costs and job security –voters respond to concrete solutions, not just ideals. It’s not enough to be “the good guys.”.

A similar reflection has been stirring within European progressives. In France, for example, the French left recently united to form a “Nouveau Front Populaire” (NFP), because if they were to stand a chance in last summer’s snap elections, they had no other choice.

NFP figures such as François Ruffin have articulated a harsh but necessary truth: when people feel abandoned by the left, they often abandon the left in return. He argues that it is by building a strong, united bloc that puts the working class and economic justice at its centre – that every group, every struggle, and every voice can find its place.

Only by forming this majority can the left avoid the trap of seeing itself as a “besieged fortress” and offer a powerful, unifying alternative that can genuinely lead society forward. The alternative is far-right populists speaking to the anger and frustration of those who feel left behind.

Of course, defending rights and dignity is foundational to any progressive platform. I am absolutely not saying this should be cast aside. Commitments to equality, anti-discrimination, and protections for minorities, women, and LGBTQ+ communities are non-negotiable but they cannot be the sole focus.

If progressives build no further than these values, we risk sounding less like advocates for change and more like a distant moral authority. And we’ve seen that moral arguments, however important, aren’t sufficient to reach those who feel economically vulnerable.

What’s needed is a vision that builds on these core principles, addressing both the economic and social needs of the wider population.

The recent US elections underscored this point, with Republicans making serious inroads among Latino and Black voters, who also worry about economic challenges, with wages stagnant, jobs insecure, and housing unaffordable. For a progressive agenda to resonate, it must speak to these practical, material issues alongside questions of equality and justice.

These elections are also a wake-up call for those of us who are pro-EU. When you think about it, there’s something almost absurd about how worriedly many Europeans followed the US elections, as if our own futures depended on whatever people in Pennsylvania decided on. It’s really strange, and more crucially, unsustainable.

As French MEP Raphaël Glucksmann put it, Europe has long lived under America’s “protective umbrella,” but that era is over. For those of us who believe in a progressive, independent Europe, this is a call to step up, to build a kind of sovereignty that doesn’t mean isolation but self-reliance.

In today’s world, Europe can’t just wait for a US presidency that aligns with our needs. We need to invest in our own vision of solidity and resilience. It means focusing on areas such as defence, energy, and technology to ensure Europe’s autonomy in a world of shifting power dynamics. It’s becoming clear that the EU needs to focus on an agenda that keeps it relevant and resilient, especially as America’s attention becomes more domestically focused.

The morning after the election, Glucksmann, visibly frustrated, warned of the dangers of left-wing leaders’ complacency. A committed social democrat, he’s long been urging the left to conduct a brutal honesty exercise, pressing it to turn its attention to issues of work and production: “because if we don’t, the Donald Trumps of Europe will.”

READ MORE: Scotland's vacant and derelict land is a persistent issue

In this context, the recent efforts of France’s Nouveau Front Populaire are worth looking at. Though it remains to be seen how successful it will be in the long run, it offers a platform where the fight for individual freedoms stands on equal footing with critical questions of economic security, public services, and national and European sovereignty.

These aren’t separate issues. They’re intertwined, forming a foundation for a progressive vision that addresses both dignity and livelihoods.

The point is clear: progressives should never, ever accept abandoning entire parts of the electorate to the far right, who exploit people’s fears for the present and the future.

Far-right leaders capitalise on the idea that the left has stopped “seeing” the concerns of ordinary citizens.

By contrast, a progressive vision that addresses both equality and material needs could effectively reclaim this ground. This doesn’t mean adopting the style or rhetoric of the right but building a future-oriented platform that reflects our collective interests – our public services, our social safety nets, and our shared assets that allow us to thrive together.

In the end, a progressive vision must be rooted in both values and the tangible issues that shape people’s lives. It’s a wake-up call to look beyond defending the status quo and to offer a project that speaks to everyday struggles.

If European progressives fail to adapt, they risk irrelevance. But if they can recalibrate – if they can offer a vision that promises both justice and prosperity – they stand a chance of building a future that resonates with people’s aspirations.