Reform are on the rise – here's what it means for Scotland

While Nigel Farage’s party did not pick up a seat in Scotland at the General Election, it did nonetheless pick up 7% of the vote, securing just shy of 168,000 ballots, all despite facing accusations of standing “ghost candidates”.

There’s no denying the party is on the rise north of the Border, with a strong showing in the recent Fraserburgh and District by-election and the latest Norstat poll predicting the party could secure as many as 12 MSPs in 2026.

In a post on the Reform UK Scotland Twitter/X page, the party said four pilot branches were being launched across Scotland this week.

(Image: Twitter/X)

The Sunday National has spoken with a range of figures on what the party’s rise might mean for Scotland and how it could lead to a shake-up of the Scottish Parliament.

Finding success

According to Dr Anthony Ridge-Newman of Liverpool Hope University, Reform’s success in the July election mapped on to global trends.

“Just in reference to the US election for instance, we’ve seen a significant shift to support for the Conservative right and for the likes of Donald Trump and we’re seeing that across parts of Europe as well,” he explained.

“They’re a new brand and are able to appeal to those that feel disaffected by what they consider traditional politics, politicians and political parties.”

Likewise, chief reporter for the Byline Times Josiah Mortimer (below), who looked into the party’s “phantom candidates” at the election, said: “I think they were a sort of natural outpost for anger really at what voters perhaps perceived as establishment political parties.

(Image: Josiah Mortimer)

“There’s a fair amount of alignment between Reform UK and the Tories but having come out of 14 years of them, that sense of disillusionment wasn’t going to be channelled into the governing party.

“In terms of the grievances that drove that, much of it is kind of obvious, there was people voted for Brexit in 2016 and didn’t see a decline in immigration figures that was promised.”

Mortimer had previously criticised the party – which said it wants to end “cancel culture” and “left-wing hate mobs” – for refusing to allow him to attend the Reform conference.

“It wasn’t even a rejection because I had a ticket in my inbox,” he said.

“It was Reform UK’s take on cancel culture I suppose by rejecting journalists which might do some critical pieces on them but I’ll try again next year and see what happens.”

READ MORE: Five by-elections show Reform are on the rise in Scotland – should we be concerned?

In terms of policy, Reform UK placed emphasis on immigration and in the “contract with you” document on the party’s website, it lists proposing some of the following policies:

• Imposing a requirement of five years residency and employment to claim any benefits in the UK
• Introduce new visa rules for international students that bar dependents while only international students with “essential skills can remain in the UK”
• “Close down fake courses and immigration schemes that abuse the rules”
• Increase the National Insurance rate to 20% for foreign workers to “incentivise businesses to employ British citizens

However, Scottish Green activist Niall Christie, who stood for the party in Glasgow South at the General Election, says he feels there are similarities between Labour and Reform.

“Days before the election Keir Starmer was making comments saying he wanted to send Bangladeshis home,” he said.

“Things like that are far-right talking points which doesn’t help Labour because they won’t get more votes from that but it legitimises right-wing and far-right parties.

“That kind of policy would be at home in a Reform policy platform. They’ve made the calculation that to win a majority they need to move slightly to the right but by doing so they don’t make it likelier progressive policies will get past.”

Starmer (below) had faced criticism for saying that “people coming from countries like Bangladesh are not being removed because they are not being processed” – comments which he was subsequently said were not intended to cause offence.

(Image: PA)

Reform has previously denied it is a "far-right" party with the BBC having apologised for describing them as such in one of its articles.

Ridge-Newman meanwhile believes Labour need to put more of a focus on Scotland if they want to make sure voters don’t flee to Farage’s party when the next General Election comes around.

“I think Labour like the Conservatives can get sucked into what’s happening in Westminster, which is largely focused on what happens in England,” he said.

“And if they fall into that sort of cycle then the voters of Scotland will question whether Labour does have their interests at heart and that is the space in which Reform could become very successful.”

What do the polls say?

A Norstat poll published at the beginning of the November suggested Reform could stand to do well in the next Scottish Parliament election, winning 11% in both the constituency and regional ballot – ahead of both the Greens and LibDems.

At the July General Election, Reform found success in the likes of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – where Douglas Ross lost his seat.

However, pollster Mark Diffley pointed out that while polling would suggest at the moment that Reform is perhaps best placed to win seats in the north east, they should not be underestimated elsewhere.

“They stood candidates everywhere and do have a presence, even in Glasgow, which you might not think of as natural territory, but they were polling at around 6% or so in most of the constituencies there,” he said.

It comes ahead of three by-elections in Glasgow City Council next week as Labour look to defend seats, with two of those vacated by Patricia Ferguson and Maureen Burke as they took their seats in Westminster.

“While we might not see them win seats at the by-elections next week, they will I think do well.

“And they’re doing better in national polling so what they’ll be looking at is getting 10% in some of those or above that.”

While much of Reform’s success came from disillusioned Tory voters at the last General Election, Diffley points out there is still the possibility of SNP and Labour voters switching to the party.

He continued: “I think what the national polls tell us ahead of 2026 is that they will primarily take votes from the Tories.

“But recent Norstat polling says around a quarter of those who supported the Tories (23%) in 2021 will vote Reform this time around.

“There is a slither of both Labour (9%) and SNP (7%) of voters who also say they will back Reform as well so it would be a misreading to say their vote will come entirely from the traditional right-wing party.

“Labour and the SNP have to be alive to the threat of Reform hoovering up some of their votes as well.”

What might it mean for the SNP?

Christie (below) says he feels that every party, not just his own, “needs to be working extremely hard to be seen as a bit different to what the establishment are” when it comes to preparing for the next Holyrood election.

(Image: Scottish Greens)

He points to several Green policies which were ditched by the Scottish Government – such as free bus travel for asylum seekers as well as the return of peak rail fares.

First Minister John Swinney also faced criticism from the Scottish Greens for saying he would welcome president-elect Donald Trump to Scotland – a man who has received plenty support from Farage.

Speaking at PMQs earlier this week, Starmer even took aim at the Clacton MP for spending so much time in the United States.

Christie said: “When you look at Swinney congratulating Trump, that isn’t an issue with being a statesman and I said that online.

“It’s an issue of legitimising what he stands for and the politics he represents. He could have said nothing and nobody would have cared.

“But I think there is a knock-on effect of saying we’ll work with Donald Trump and saying those politics are somehow acceptable.

“And if SNP voters hear that, there’s a very short jump in my opinion between thinking the politics of Donald Trump are okay and maybe thinking I’ll give Reform a vote.

“I’m not suggesting everyone who votes SNP is going to vote Reform, but with the constituency and list system, there will be a sizeable number of people who might think I normally vote SNP on constituency but I’ll give Reform a chance on the list.

READ MORE: What does Scotland get from it's 'special relationship' with the US?

“There are numerous Green policies that could have been implemented that have been chucked out which is their prerogative but they may face the reality that instead of picking up centre-left voters, they are legitimising the right in order to maintain power.

“If Reform can crack Glasgow, I don’t think it’s just about Tory voters. We’ve seen before people might vote Labour, they might vote Tory or even the SNP but they’ve been ‘tainted’ by being decision-makers and people are looking for change parties.

“Reform look like that and it’s really dangerous.”