FMQs will be worth a listen today as Anas Sarwar attempts to explain the inexplicable.

After urging Scottish Labour MPs to back means testing Winter Fuel Payments (WFP) at Westminster and instructing his own MSPs to vote against a Holyrood motion calling for a U-turn, Sarwar has suddenly changed direction.

He now promises that if Labour win the 2026 Holyrood election, he will reintroduce a universal Winter Fuel Payment of up to £300 for pensioners in Scotland. Why the about-turn?

Well, the latest Survation opinion poll probably helped. It shows support for Labour down four points in Holyrood constituencies since September which, according to John Curtice, would make the SNP the largest party in 2026.

READ MORE: Will voters buy Scottish Labour's screeching U-turn on winter fuel?

Doorstep opinion has presumably made crystal clear that axing the universal Winter Fuel Payment is going down like a very cold lead balloon. Meanwhile, Sir Keir “I see no genocide” Starmer is despised by voters who care about Gaza.

The energy price cap rose in October and looks set to rise again tomorrow. Meanwhile, temperatures in Scotland are sub-zero and pensioner deaths are imminent not abstract any more.

All of this as Scottish Labour face three by-elections in Glasgow today after newly elected Labour MPs quit their council seats. What are the odds of Labour holding on?

I’d suggest the answer is in Sarwar’s sudden volte face. Not good.

So, will his Damascene conversion save the day for Labour?

Anas Sarwar has U-turned on his support for scrapping the Winter Fuel Payment (Image: PA) Even those beyond the Yes camp will regard his move as two-faced, hypocritical and utterly cynical. Supporters say he had his doots all along but simply tholed Starmer’s policy cos he was telt. That’s even shabbier.

Still, Sarwar’s halfway hoose must seem awfy clever – to him.

A universal Winter Fuel Payment of £200-£300 that tapers down to nearly nowt for the wealthy, or is taxed back like child benefit.

With one about-turn, Sarwar believes he is free and ready to turn the heat on John Swinney and his reluctant acceptance of the Starmer/Rachel Reeves funding cut.

The SNP leader, however, plans to pleasantly surprise everyone by reinstating the universal Winter Fuel Payment in his December budget. Now Sarwar has succeeded in upstaging him.

The brass-necked Scottish Labour leader will doubtless chance his arm today at FMQs and urge Swinney to follow his own pensioner-protecting lead. He’ll privately rejoice at distancing himself from the unpopular Starmer/Reeves combo, losing the political millstone that is the Winter Fuel Payments fiasco and hopefully winning future by-elections.

That at least is the plan. But will it work? Mebbes aye, mebbes naw.

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After emphasising the importance of being “in lock step” with London, how will Sarwar’s vote of no confidence in Starmer be received by the media, Labour HQ and Scottish voters?

Well obviously, the media will struggle to receive it at all.

London only registers Scotland when Paddy McGuinness (admirably) cycles into town. And most Scottish papers are already printing their “Sarwar for First Minister” pieces. Just as Gaza protests are dismissed as the excitable actions of an unrepresentative few, attacking the sheer gall of Sarwar’s U-turn will prompt charges of sour grapes.

But what about the public?

A lot depends on the savviness of voters and the confidence of Sarwar’s stance.

As the Record’s political editor Paul Hutcheon puts it, “the new pitch is essentially ‘Vote Scottish Labour to reverse UK Labour policy’ – a message that could confuse voters".

The whole attraction of having the same party run both parliaments is that Holyrood’s Robin will have a direct line to Westminster’s Batman. But if Batman ain’t picking up – what’s the point of Robin? It’s a bit like thinking you get better treatment by placing all your insurance policies with one company. Instead, they just smile at your naivety and hike the premiums.

Keir Starmer repeatedly pledged 'change' at the General ElectionBut if Labour voters weren’t pursuing a parliamentary “double dunt” they may have ditched the SNP in July over Labour’s claim to be the “change” party.

Hmm, let’s see. Inflation up. National Insurance rises set to cripple charities, arts venues, doctors, care homes and hospitals. Four thousand predicted to die because of means tested Winter Fuel Payments. Rachel Reeves’ makey uppey CV. Starmer’s refusal to call Israel’s action in Gaza a genocide. Farmers protesting over inheritance tax changes. And Freebiegate.

Aye, there’s been change alright. But none you would expect from a Labour Government.

So, what happens when the uber loyalists of the Scottish Labour Party announce they cannae thole the flagship policy of their own UK Government?

I’ll tell you what happens. The tin lid of the Union starts to clank shut.

Yes, it was fine for Scotland to be different and a step ahead of Britain in 2001 when Henry McLeish pushed through free personal care against the active obstruction of erstwhile Westminster colleague, Alistair Darling. The (then) social security secretary tried to scupper the Scottish Labour proposals by withholding £23m in attendance allowance payments. Jings, with friends like these …

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To be fair though, Labour north and south of the Border managed to soldier on.

But that was then, when independence was just a gleam in Alex Salmond’s eye and progressive devolved policies looked as good as we’d get.

2014 changed all that. Now cross-Border differences help crush the case for the Union.

Witness yesterday’s Telegraph editorial which declared: “Pensioners in the rest of the UK will wonder why Labour are proposing to bring the Winter Fuel Payment back only in Scotland.” Not a word about Scottish Labour, devolved government and Scotland’s right to choose. Just an assertion of double standards by Starmer to placate the ever-restless Jocks.

Soon we’ll be right up there with greedy trade union leaders who’ve wrecked the economy with hikes for some of the lowest paid workers in Europe.

The point is Unionists hotly deny cross-Border differences because they make the case not for devolution, but for independence.

Every difference enacted in the last 17 years of SNP government has been a dry-run for the bigger transformation independence will bring. And whether that’s how the (hardly radical) SNP saw things at the time, it’s how the (deeply conservative) establishment has characterised those SNP policies ever since.

Different just to be different. Change for change’s sake.

That’s why Labour, Tory and LibDem grandees (looking at you Lord George) insist Scotland is no different from England, wilfully ignoring the near-century of different Westminster voting, the very different Brexit result plus the distinctive backing for higher taxes and a more generous, interventionist welfare state in Scotland.

Yet still, despite all that downplaying, differences clearly exist. And now Sarwar agrees.

Anas Sarwar in the Holyrood Parliament building (Image: Jane Barlow) Suddenly, he’s proposing a radically different policy from Westminster which won’t rock the constitutional boat in any way. Really?

It can only be because the Scottish Labour leader finally acknowledges Scotland is different.

The Scottish political consensus is different. The Scottish weather is different. The timing of Scottish elections is different.

And the importance attached to those elections at Westminster is also different.

It’s somewhere close to zip.

The winter fuel U-turn tells us a lot about the state of the Union.

It tells us Sarwar’s bid to win over his London boss failed. It says his (presumed) efforts to alter the policy for everyone also failed.

And the case for a Scottish opt-out was probably dismissed as special pleading by the Jocks. If anyone at Labour HQ was paying attention in the first place.

Och Anas. It’s a sair fecht.

Holyrood today will be dominated as ever by questions to the First Minister – but Sarwar may find he has even more to answer.