‘BUT to my mind, the result is a fix, and only stores up problems for later” was my view, on September 8 in this newspaper, of the French government’s chances.

Sadly, much as I didn’t know what the specific problems would be, the French government is in deep trouble because of the budget. It is a crisis that will resonate well beyond France because membership of the euro necessitates that everything is connected to everything else.

My personal view on the euro is that Scotland should get real and make a genuine commitment to accede to it.

READ MORE: Alyn Smith: European Parliament hearings an important process

Yes of course, at the proper time and yes of course, we’ll need to be independent and have an independent currency to do it from, and I’m open to that working so well that euro membership becomes less appealing, but the euro exists, has credibility on the international markets and is working from the Algarve to the Arctic Circle to save costs and help business and consumers.

Joining is a commitment on accession to the EU, is in our interests and should be our aspiration … Though that’s for another day.

But it is safe to say and I’d readily admit the euro remains a work in progress.

One of the more difficult arguments, and more salient points, of the Leave campaign in 2016 was the treatment of Ireland and Greece when their governments allowed a huge spending splurge and debt crisis, and had to take some tough and unpleasant medicine to remedy the situation, sternly and unsympathetically imposed by a Brussels machine that was all too readily presented as living up to the out of touch and unfeeling stereotype.

Fast forward to now, and Ireland has a budget surplus to an extent you have to wonder if they do indeed have a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, and Greek government debt is now cheaper than France’s. As of last week, Greece’s 10-year sovereign bonds yield below 3%, aligning with the yield on France’s equivalent OAT bonds.

Like many states, France spent big during Covid to keep the economy afloat and government debt is way above the agreed rules within the eurozone. Where the debt (at 109.5% of GDP) is comparable to the UK’s (at 101% and hence the austerity budget the UK has just implemented), France has agreed as part of the euro to operate within the same rules as all other states large and small in order that nobody destabilises anyone else within the bloc.

We’re getting close to that territory now.

Prime Minister Michel Barnier made it clear that his priority was to bring down the French budget deficit (the difference between the amount a country spends and the amount it brings in, not the overall debt) which spiked to 5.5% of GDP in 2023, prompting the European Commission to trigger the “excessive deficit procedure” which can lead to sanctions if the member state doesn’t take serious action.

With the 2024 deficit set to hit 6.1%, Barnier proposed a belting €40 billion in cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes for 2025, which have gone down as well as one might expect.

This might have been a storm the government could weather, but the arithmetic in the parliament is going to be a challenge.

This is largely down to a miscalculation by President Emmanuel Macron himself which Barnier is trying to make sense of.

READ MORE: COP29 highlights need for greater interconnectivity

Back in June, as a result of the defeat in the European elections Macron’s party suffered at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, he called a snap election to the Assemblée Nationale.

The French vote saw the New Popular Front, a rather ragtag leftist coalition to block the National Rally, win the most seats in the French parliament but fall short of an absolute majority. Macron’s centrists came second, while the National Rally came in third.

Where the New Popular Front asserted their right to form the government, Macron disagreed on the basis they didn’t have a majority and appointed Barnier, effectively daring the far right to vote them down. It may soon be exposed as a bluff, as just on Friday, Le Pen gave Barnier until Monday to revisit his proposals and come up with an alternative.

The New Popular Front has already said they will vote against the budget and the government so we now see the pretty unedifying spectacle of the far-right calling the shots because the left and centre can’t work together.

The markets are jittery and there’s a danger that speculation in French debt could be as destabilising as the politics are. Where that takes us is nowhere good, as the size of the French economy has a significant impact on the eurozone.

The newly approved European Commission will be watching events closely as there cannot be one set of rules for some and another for others if the bloc is to be credible.

But the solution may well yet be found in Paris, Barnier is an experienced negotiator and there will be some pressure on Le Pen also – she has spent the past decade making serious efforts, with some success, to repackage her party as a serious alternative government.

If she burns the house down at the first opportunity, that would damage her own credibility, especially if the economy takes a further hit and she’s blamed for it. Events, dear boy, events!