National contributors give verdict on Scottish Government Budget

Professor Richard Murphy

Shona Robinson’s SNP Budget is confusing. It would appear to be full of good news, with very little bad news being noted, and in the current economic context, and in particular, given the poor settlement that Scotland got from Westminster in Rachel Reeves's recent Budget, that is hard to understand.

The obvious question to ask is how Robinson can offer a bigger NHS settlement, an effective end of the two-child cap in Scotland, support for pensioners, new investment in green infrastructure and simultaneously reduce the tax bills (even if not by much) of the majority of people in Scotland and balance her books as she is legally required to do?

Writing this soon after she has sat down, and before the Scottish Government has posted any meaningful information on its website to explain the Budget decisions that have been made, my honest answer to the question I have posed is that I do not know what tricks are in play and as a result I am wondering where the catch is ... because experience tells me that there must be one.

(Image: PA)

It is possible that this might not be a good Budget for local authority funding because the exact nature of the offer to them is hard to work out at present. Other areas where difficulties might arise are education, social care and law and order, mention of all of which were almost entirely absent in Robinson's speech. I am, therefore, left in the dark. 

READ MORE: Shona Robison takes aim at Tory MSP for Scottish Budget comments

I think, as a result, that Robinson has played a game of political theatre with the incredibly difficult hand that any Scottish finance minister is given when presenting their Budget (about which I will have more to say in my column tomorrow), and that she is just hoping that this will play out well over the next few days.

However, as every finance minister should know, the devil is always in the details. In this case, there might be something very uncomfortable hidden in that detail to make Robison‘s books balance.

There is much more to this Budget than meets the eye right now, and we will want to know what that is before knowing how good it might be. 

Ellie Gomersall

After being decisively rejected at the ballot box in the Westminster election and by-elections across the country, the draft publication of this year’s Scottish Budget shows that the SNP have their eyes firmly on 2026. This is a Budget full of big headlines – but scratch below the surface and there’s little of substance.

That’s not to say those headlines aren’t good – mitigating Labour’s cruel continuation of the two-child benefit cap, free bus travel for asylum seekers and significant funding for the climate emergency – these are all positive steps towards a fairer Scotland.

READ MORE: Scottish islands to receive £20m to explore creation of subsea tunnels

Yet once again, this SNP government lacks the ambition to make the most of its existing devolved revenue raising powers, and it’ll be vital public services and the local authorities who deliver them which will continue to suffer as a result.

While Robison claims to be delivering “record” investment in local government, the reality is that the actual block grant made available to local authorities is going down, not up – and basic public services including waste collection, education and basic infrastructure will continue to be eroded.

John Swinney and the SNP know that if they want to remain in government after 2026, they need to turn their fortunes around dramatically. This is a flashy Budget designed to win voters back around to a party running out of ideas after 17 years in government. The reality though is that by shirking its responsibilities to properly redistribute wealth and invest in public services, this budget will do little to substantially improve the lives of Scotland’s working class.

(Image: NQ) George Kerevan

The fundamental weaknesses of Shona Robison’s Holyrood Budget is, alas, that it is not focused on boosting economic growth. The recent ill-judged Labour Budget looks set to reduce economic growth in the UK over the next few years. Mitigating that should have been the priority for Scotland by increasing capital investment, especially in housing. But if you read the small print of the SNP Budget you find that the Scottish Government intends to limit its capital borrowing, leaving £1.5 billion investment spending capacity unused. This shows a dangerous political timidity especially if an incoming Unionist administration in 2026 uses this same cash bonanza to finance its own spending. It would be better to inject spending and confidence into the Scottish economy now.

Also in the small print of the SNP Budget we find there is to be a further delay in the plan to issue Scottish Government bonds as a way of borrowing, instead of relying on the UK Treasury. This is yet more fiscal conservatism. Selling Holyrood bonds directly to Scottish savers would be lower risk, and so probably cheaper than other forms of borrowing, and boost the assets of Scottish citizens. It would also be a giant step to fiscal independence. Again, an opportunity is being lost.

READ MORE: IFS and Fraser of Allander give verdicts on SNP's Scottish Budget

I welcome the increase in tax thresholds but some of the gain for ordinary Scots will be lost by impending council tax rises. In the short run, it might have been better to boost the Holyrood cash going to hard-pressed local authorities. In the longer term, there is still no sign of a proper reform of local government financing. Conclusion: This Budget does not look far enough ahead. But to win the 2026 election, the SNP need to show they still have a strategic vision.

(Image: George Munro)

Chris McEleny

Alba's Holyrood leader Ash Regan MSP was right to welcome the Scottish Government’s draft Budget as “a step in the right direction".

But Alba Party do have concerns that the decision to end the freeze on council tax will see bills skyrocket across Scotland. 

Ash Regan held constructive talks with the Scottish Government ahead of the publication of the draft budget. She set out her key priorities of the Government to secure her vote, mainly mitigating the cut to Winter Fuel Payments as well as wanting to see funding put in place for the roll out of universal free school meals to all primary school children. 

In advance of today Alba Party had already successfully lobbied the Scottish Government to to move towards mitigating the cut to winter fuel payments. 

Although the announcement for more free breakfast clubs in primary schools across Scotland is welcome, we look forward to more detail on the proposal and Ash Regan will continue to lobby for funding for the full roll out of universal entitlement to free school meals as part of the final budget settlement.

However, the decision to end the freeze to council tax, without any cap on rises to replace it, means that hard-pressed Scots who are already under financial pressure could now face large increases to their bills next year. We look forward to continuing to work with the Scottish Government to ensure that household budgets are protected as part of the final Budget that will be voted on early next year.

Craig Dalzell

For all that Shona Robison won a bit of breathing room after the UK Budget the other month, most of it appears to have been accounted for by (welcome though still insufficient) public sector pay deals and the funding to pay for the tax rises linked to them. There certainly hasn’t been much in the way of a change of direction from the Government (other than a U-turn on the second raid of the ScotWind funds – but let’s not give out cookies for no longer doing the wrong thing).

The most important thing the Government could have done this year was to ensure the future financial integrity of local government and local public services. In 2021, the SNP made a manifesto pledge to hold a Citizens’ Assembly to tackle local government finances and to decide on reforms to council tax. That promise has been broken. This was the last chance before the next election to reform council tax and the Government has not taken it.

Similarly, Common Weal has spent a substantial portion of this year receiving pushback on our attempts to strengthen the Land Reform Bill with the addition of a land tax, being told that it was not the time to discuss such taxes as they could only be introduced in the Budget. Budget time has come, the land tax has not. So we can only conclude that this Budget means that the Scottish Government simply doesn’t want to reform land ownership in Scotland or to redistribute the largest store of untaxed wealth in the country.