BORIS Johnson is not, thankfully, responsible for Covid policy in Scotland. However, it cannot be denied that what happens in England does influence Scottish Covid policy, and right now that’s deeply worrying.
I am not a medic. It’s not my job here to note the rights and wrongs of what Johnson is doing with regard to health policy. But since the impact of Covid on the economy has been enormous, the spillover of England’s policy on the English economy, which is bound to have repercussions in Scotland, is something to worry about, but which has been little discussed to date.
Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation has described the new English approach to Covid as "epidemiological stupidity". One hundred epidemiologists and others have agreed, using more moderate language, in a letter to The Lancet.
Despite this, no doubt the policy will go ahead at exactly the time that much of the support being provided to businesses to help them manage Covid is being withdrawn. Furlough is winding down. Tax support is ending, and payments are now being expected from those with tax debts to settle, whilst Covid bank loans now need to be repaid for the first time in many cases. And simultaneously the Westminster government expects Covid cases to exceed 100,000 a day, with hundreds of thousands more being expected to isolate as a result.
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Let’s ignore debate on the accuracy of the forecasts; they are so big they are bound to be significant. Let’s also ignore the impact on the NHS, including from already existing stresses, from Inverness southward. Instead, let’s imagine the impact on business.
First, when it’s really struggling to return to normal many businesses will be massively disrupted by staff sickness because of Johnson’s Covid policy. That is going to be a nightmare to manage.
Second, sensible people (and there are a lot of them) will react to the Westminster claim that the people of England have freedom by tightening their own self-imposed lockdowns to protect themselves from the increased risk that supposed freedom creates.
So, third, there will be both supply and demand disruption for a great many businesses in England over the coming weeks. That is not a recipe for the growth Rishi Sunak is desperate for. Nor does it suggest growing tax yields are likely, which he thinks essential. It leaves the predictions of those saying the end of lockdown might deliver a mini-boom looking pretty unlikely. Instead, the likelihood that English Covid recklessness will lead the economy of the UK as a whole into recession looks to be high at present. The knock-on effect of that could be severe and rapid.
Re-opening was always going to be a very stressful time for many businesses. There were always going to be some for whom the return to normal levels of trading was going to be too much for their already stretched resources. That is now going to be very much worse.
READ MORE: Sage advisers warned UK Government of 'significant risk' of axing restrictions
On top of that, no-one could have expected to be asked to re-open in the face of the onslaught of the next wave of the pandemic. The disruptions caused by unwell employees, and people refusing to go out and spend for the reasons I have already noted will significantly increase the number of companies that might fail. I cannot see Scotland being exempt from that risk.
Johnson might be acting with reckless indifference to people’s health right now. But he’s also showing callous disregard towards many smaller businesses whose chances of surviving Covid are being put at real risk by his actions. I would not be surprised if we see a significant economic downturn as a result, and no-one was forecasting that until the Westminster government decided to make it possible.
I often wonder how much a government can get wrong. In the case of Johnson’s, it would seem that the answer is more than we ever imagined.
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