There are times when Scottish rugby fans must want to hide under a duvet and wait for the sun to start shining again, which is usually in June or July and then only for a short time.

Keep taking the Vitamin D, boys and girls, because this last week has not even seen a glimmer of sunshine for Scotland, and I am not talking the weather here. The defeats of Edinburgh Rugby and Glasgow Warriors were bad enough – the latter match was particularly gruesome viewing – but then came the news that Duhan van der Merwe and Adam Hastings will be plying their trade in England next season.

I don’t blame either player for maximising their income in careers which can be truncated in a moment, but it does show the parlous state of Scottish rugby’s finances when the SRU simply cannot compete in pay terms with clubs down south. That news emerged after the 2023 World Cup draw. It did not take any sort of genius to work out that the 2023 World Cup was going to see Scotland in a pool in which they would have their work cut out to make it to the group stage.

I warned before last year’s World Cup that failure to make it to the quarter-finals would put Scotland in dire difficulties in the 2023 version of the tournament in France, simply because I was aware of one single fact – that the seedings for 2023 would be based on the world rankings on January 1, 2020.

Scotland’s failure to beat Ireland and Japan meant we ended 2019 ranked number nine in the world, and that decided we would be seeded in Band 3 for the draw that took place earlier this week and which has seen us in a real Group of Death with Ireland and the world champions South Africa with two more qualifiers to join us. Given that those qualifiers should be Samoa or Tonga and Romania or Georgia, I am happy to say now what Scotland’s aim should be – at least beat the minnows and qualify for the 2027 version as one of the top three in Pool B. Forget beating Ireland and South Africa, it’s just not going to happen.

And yet, and yet … how many people reading this would have predicted last year that several nations would not even play this year? How many of you would have guessed that Wales would go into reverse? Who really would have predicted that Argentina would beat New Zealand? Above all, who could have even dreamed – that should be “nightmared” – of the coronavirus pandemic?

The unfairness of the World Cup draw is manifest. Almost three years before the tournament takes place the draw has been decided, based on standings that were already way out of date.

Take Wales, for example. On January 1 they stood at number four in the rankings, but their disastrous run of form means they are now ninth. Yet there they were in the draw in Band 1. Scotland have risen to seventh in the rankings and have overtaken Japan who were still in Band 2.

Largely as the result of that historic win over the All Blacks, Argentina are now one behind us in eighth having overtaken Wales. England may have beaten France to win the Autumn Nations Cup, but that was the French 2nd XV practically, and does anyone doubt that Les Bleus are the current form team in the world? They are now ranked four but were ranked seven in January, and so we face the prospect of the All Blacks taking on France in Pool A when France, to my viewing, will show long before the time the tournament starts that they deserved Band 1 status instead of Wales.

It is all so unfair and terribly premature and I am glad that World Rugby has agreed to review the timing of the draw for future World Cups. Might I suggest cutting the “notice period” to one year if, of course, we are back to any sort of normality.

So, can Scotland make it to the quarter finals in France in 2023? My immediate reaction is ”no chance” but look how much has changed since last year’s World Cup. Yes, Ireland and South Africa will be strong favourites to beat Scotland on current form, and nobody could argue with that unless they have a Trumpian approach to reality.

Gregor Townsend is in charge to the end of the World Cup at least and that’s a good move by the SRU as it least assures us of a consistent approach to developing the squad. If they both have a bad day, South Africa and Ireland can be beaten, but Scotland must play way beyond what they are achieving just now. There are some signs of development though not enough at the moment – but the one advantage of the premature draw is that Townsend and co will have plenty time to conceive of a winning approach.